Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts

Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Forecast darkens for Europe and U.S. economies

Protesters in Greece have objected to steep cuts in social services.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- Europe's economy will contract next year and the United States will see slower growth than previously forecast, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Tuesday.

The OECD now forecasts that gross domestic product will decline by 0.1% next year in the eurozone, the 17-nation currency area. It had previously expected growth of 0.9%. The OECD also cut its 2012 forecast to -0.4% from -0.1%.

Unemployment in the region is forecast to rise to 11.9% in 2013 from 11.1% this year.

The previous OECD projection, issued in May, predicted unemployment would hit 10.8% in 2012 before spiking to 11.1% next year.

"The euro area, which is witnessing significant fragmentation pressures, could be in danger," wrote Pier Carlo Padoan, the organization's chief economist.

The danger of a messy end to the region's debt crisis is pushing up yields on sovereign debt, hurting Europe's banks and driving fears that a country could be forced to leave the continent's monetary union, Padoan said.

"Against such a fragile background, it is not difficult to imagine a situation in which something goes wrong," he said.

The diminished OECD projections for the eurozone are more optimistic than some private forecasts, but the organization is predicting a weaker performance than either the European Commission or International Monetary Fund, which see 2013 growth of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

Greece, the continent's most indebted economy, was granted a reprieve Tuesday as eurozone finance ministers came to terms with IMF negotiators over the next round of bailout money for the country. Still, Greece's debt will likely remain above 100% of GDP for at least the next decade.

Southern Europe's woes have already begun to affect the core. Germany has seen growth slow, and Moody's stripped France of its AAA credit rating earlier in November, citing its exposure to shocks from the eurozone periphery.

Related: Eurozone risks rising as outlook darkens

The eurozone problems, one of the biggest risks to the global economy, are spilling across borders and contributing to a global decline in consumer confidence, the OECD said. Emerging economies are particularly affected, and faring worse than their developed counterparts. Global trade, a key indicator of growth, is faltering.

The OECD sees slower growth for the United States as well, although the word's largest economy is facing fewer headwinds than Europe. GDP will increase this year by 2.2%, according to the OECD, which previously forecast growth of 2.4%. The group expects mediocre growth next year, and an expansion of 2.0%.

The biggest stumbling block for the U.S. is the so-called fiscal cliff, a set of automatic tax increases and spending cuts that will go into affect next year without congressional action. Many economists believe the U.S. will return to recession if policymakers fail to strike a deal. To top of page

First Published: November 27, 2012: 5:00 AM ET

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Monday, 26 November 2012

OLED Lighting Materials Market Forecast

In the report, we review the key technical and commercial developments of the past year and provide granular, eight-year volume and revenue forecasts for this business. Forecasts are provided for all key materials in the OLED stack – substrates, electrodes, emitters and hosts, hole and electron transport/injection/blocking materials, and encapsulation materials.

Pioneering OLED firms are poised to move beyond luxury luminaires and designer kits over the next few years and into larger, general illumination applications like office lighting. These pioneering firms will shape which materials will be used. NanoMarkets therefore believes that now is the time for its clients to become better acquainted with opportunities emerging from this important sector:

• OLED lighting will eventually emerge as the largest addressable market for OLED materials, but only if advances in materials can help to close several remaining technology gaps related to improved OLED lighting efficiency, lifetime, and total cost of ownership. Thus, this report is an essential guide for materials and specialty chemical firms seeking to gain a competitive edge for their OLED materials in this emerging market. This report provides insight into the developing opportunities, paying special attention to the opportunities for OLED lighting materials that will develop over the next 18 months or so.

• OLED lighting panel manufacturers will learn from this report how recent leaps forward in encapsulation technology are enabling new markets for OLED lighting, such as larger lighting panels for office illlumination.  Among the important issues that this report discusses are the continued importance of a move toward all-phosphorescent OLED stacks and the potential for solution processing to help reduce costs. 

In addition to above analysis, this definitive report on the markets for OLED lighting materials also names the winners and losers in this market and examines the product development and marketing strategies of major players in the OLED encapsulation sector, from large multinationals like DuPont Displays and Merck to specialty firms like UDC and Cambrios.

Chapter Two: OLED Lighting Materials Trends and Opportunities
2.1 Changes in the OLED Lighting Materials Business Since Our Last Report
2.1.1 Slow Takeoff of the OLED Lighting Market – Factors Holding Up Materials Demand
2.1.2 The Importance of Reducing Materials Costs in OLED Lighting
2.1.3 The Importance of OLED Lighting Panel Performance
2.1.4 The Latest Technical Developments in OLED Lighting Materials
2.1.5 The Future of Solution-Processing in OLED Lighting
2.1.6 What Ever Happened to Polymer OLEDs?
2.2 The OLED Materials Supply Structure
2.2.1 The Role of IP and the Importance of Phosphorescent Emitter Systems
2.2.2 Key Customers of OLED Lighting Materials – Trends and Needs

Chapter Three: Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Lighting Materials
3.1 Forecasting Methodology
3.1.1 General Methodology
3.1.2 Scope
3.1.3 Information Sources
3.2 Forecasting Assumptions and Changes from Last Year’s Report
3.2.1 OLED Lighting Area Forecasts
3.2.2 General Economic Assumptions
3.2.3 Pricing Assumptions
3.2.4 Alternative Scenarios
3.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting Materials by Material Type and Deposition Method
3.3.1 Cathode Materials
3.3.2 EML Materials: Emitters and Hosts
3.3.3 ETL materials
3.3.4 HTL, EBL, HBL
3.3.5 HIL Materials
3.3.6 Anode Materials
3.3.7 Encapsulation
3.4 Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Lighting Substrates
3.4.1 Rigid Glass Substrates
3.4.2 Flexible Glass
3.4.3 Plastic Substrates
3.4.4 Metal Foils as OLED Lighting Substrates
3.4.5 Summary of OLED Lighting Substrate Forecasts
3.5 Summaries of Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting Materials
3.5.1 Summary of the Market Value of the Core OLED Functional Materials by Deposition Method and by OLED Type
3.5.2 Grand Total Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Lighting Materials

Exhibit 2-1: Overview of OLED Lighting “State-of-the-Art” Technical Characteristics
Exhibit 2-2: Overview of Other Notable OLED Materials Firms By Region
Exhibit 3-1: OLED Lighting Shipments by Application 2012-2019 (OLED Panel Area, Millions m2)
Exhibit 3-2: Area of Vapor-Deposited Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-3: Area of Solution-Processed Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-4: Area of Polymer OLED Lighting Panels by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-5: OLED Lighting by Active Material Type 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-6: Estimated Average OLED Functional Materials Prices, 2012 - 2019 ($/g)
Exhibit 3-7: Estimated Average Materials Costs of Different Layers in OLED Lighting Panels, 2012 - 2019 ($/m2)
Exhibit 3-8: Cathode Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-9: Quantity and Value of Vapor-Deposited Small-Molecule Emitter and Host Materials in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-10: Quantity and Value of Solution-Processed Small-Molecule Emitter and Host Materials in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-11: Quantity and Value of Light-Emitting Polymers (LEPs) in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-12: Summaries of Emitter and Host Materials in OLED Lighting 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-13 Summary of Emitter and Host Materials in OLED Lighting by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-14: Quantity and Market Value of ETL Materials in Vapor-Deposited Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-15: Quantity and Market Value of ETL Materials in Solution-Processed Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-16: Summary of ETL Materials in OLED Lighting by Deposition Method 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-17: Summary of Electron Transport Layer Materials in OLED Lighting by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-18: Quantity and Market Value of HTL/EBL/HBL Materials in Vapor-Deposited Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-19: Quantity and Market Value of HTL/EBL/HBL Materials in Solution-Processed Small Molecule OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-20: Quantity and Value of HTL/EBL/HBL Materials in Polymer OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-21: Summary of HTL/EBL/HBL OLED Lighting Materials 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-22: Summary of Hole Transport and Electron/Hole Blocking Layer Materials in OLED Lighting by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-23: Quantity and Market Value of HIL Materials in Vapor-Deposited Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-24: Quantity and Market Value of HIL Materials1 in Solution-Processed Small-Molecule OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-25: Quantity and Market Value of HIL Materials in Polymer OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-26: Summary of HIL Materials in OLED Lighting 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-27: Summary of Hole Injection Layer Materials in OLED Lighting by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-28 Anode1 Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-29: Encapsulation1 Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-30: Rigid Glass Substrate Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-31: Flexible Glass Substrate Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-32: Plastic Substrate Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-33: Metal Foil Substrate Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-34: Summary of Substrate Area and Value in OLED Lighting Panels 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-35: Summary of Area and Market Value of Substrates in OLED Lighting by Substrate Type 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-36: Summary of Substrates in OLED Lighting by Application 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-37: Comparison of Market Value of Core Functional OLED Lighting Materials in OLED Lighting Panels Fabricated with Vapor-Deposition vs. Solution-Processing1 2012-2019
Exhibit 3-38: Grand Total Summary: Market Value of OLED Lighting Materials 2012-2019  
Exhibit 3-39: Grand Total Summary: Market Value of OLED Lighting Materials by Material Category 2012-2019 ($ Millions)
Exhibit 3-40: Grand Total Summary: Market Value of OLED Lighting Materials by Application 2012-2019 ($ Millions)


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Printed Electronics Version 3.0: A Market Forecast

The report quantifies these opportunities in terms of revenues generated by PE V3.0 at three levels of the value chain.  In addition, to an eight-year forecast of PE-enabled products, the report also contains projections of PE components and specialist inks.  The components covered are thin-film transistors, memories, batteries, sensors, displays and lighting.  The organizations discussed include: Agilent, Bank of America, Bemis, DuPont Teijin, eBay, E Ink, Enfucell, Esquire Magazine, Fujifilm Dimatix, GE, Gemalto, HelioVolt, Holst Centre, ISET, Jenn Feng, Kovio, MasterCard, Merck, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Nanosolar, Oxford Photovoltaics, PARC, Pioneer, PolyIC, PragmaticIC, Pragmatic Printing, Plastic Logic, Printed Electronics Limited, Qolpac, Samsung, Seiko Epson, SolarPrint, Sumitomo, Thin Film Electronics, Tokyo Electron, and UDC.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter One: Printed Electronics V3.0: A Summary of Opportunities
1.1 Printing as Strategy and Printing as Tactics:  An Approach to Market Segmentation
1.2 Objectives and Coverage of this Report
1.3 Printed Electronics:  The First Two Phases and their Consequences
1.3.1 Printed Electronics Phase I:  Printed Electronics is Thick-Film Electronics
1.3.2 Printed Electronics Phase II:  Printed Electronics as a New Industry
1.4 Printed Electronics V3.0:  The New PE
1.5 Short-to-Medium Term Applications for Printed Electronics
1.5.1 Smart Packaging:  Pharma, Food and Brand Enhancement
1.5.2 PE and Security Printing
1.5.3 Smart Cards: Adding Printed Batteries and Displays for Enhanced Security
1.5.4 Medical Devices:  Patches, Bandages and Diagnostics
1.5.5 PE and Biochips
1.5.6 Interactive Media and Disposable Electronics
1.6 Longer-Term Opportunities for PE V3.0
1.6.1 Displays for Mobile Devices and Televisions
1.6.2 Printed Lighting
1.6.3 Printed Solar Panels
1.7 Supply Chain and Ecosystem Opportunities
1.8 Opportunities for the Printing/Printing Equipment Industry:  Printing Electronics Isn't As Easy as it Looks!
1.9 Eight-Year Forecasts of Products Enabled by PE V3.0

Chapter Two:  Technology Enablers and Components for the "New" Printed Electronics
2.1 Printed Electronic Components: Mostly Still Evolving
2.1.1 Processors and Memories:  Organic or Silicon
2.1.2 Printed Displays:  Technology Options
2.1.3 Printed Lighting:  Current Projects
2.1.4 Printed Sensors
2.1.5 RFID and Lesser Tagging
2.1.6 Printed Batteries
2.1.7 Evolution of Printed Photovoltaics Technology
2.2 Printed Electronics in Packaging:  Why Packaging Must Become Smart
2.2.1 The Limitations of Smart Packaging as a Target Market for PE
2.2.2 Food and Personal Care Smart Packaging Applications
2.2.3 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare-Related Smart Packaging:  Compliance Packaging
2.2.4 Brand Security
2.2.5 Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE-Enabled Smart Packaging
2.3 A Growing Need for Powered Smart Cards
2.3.1 Smart Card Chips
2.3.2 Printed Batteries and Displays in Powered Smart Cards
2.3.3 Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE-Enabled Smart Cards
2.4 PE Innovations for Medical Devices and Disposables
2.4.1 Medical and Cosmetic Patches
2.4.2 Smart Bandages
2.4.3 CPR Cards
2.4.4 Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE-Enabled Medical Devices
2.5 Interactive Printed Media and Disposable Electronics
2.5.1 Some Skeptical Thoughts on This Sector
2.5.2 Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE-Enabled Disposable Electronics and Interactive Printed Media
2.6 Printed Displays for Mobile Devices and Televisions
2.6.1 Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE-Enabled Mobile and TV Displays
2.7 Printed OLED Lighting
2.8 Printed Solar Cells
2.9 Summary of PE V3.0 Components Forecasts

Chapter Three: Opportunities for Inks and Other Key Materials for the New Printed Electronics
3.1 Electronic Inks:  Current and Future Materials
3.1.1 The Future of PE Inks
3.1.2 Printing Processes That Are Being Used in the PE V3.0 Era
3.2 Conductive Inks and Pastes for PE V3.0
3.2.1 Silver and Nano-Silver Inks
3.2.2 Gold Inks
3.2.3 Copper Inks
3.2.4 Other Metallic Inks and Polymer Electrodes
3.2.5 Transparent Conductor Inks
3.3 Semiconductor Inks for PE V3.0
3.3.1 Organic Semiconductors and Printing
3.3.2 Silicon Inks and Electronics
3.3.3 Other Semiconductor Inks and Materials Sets:  Is PE V3.0 CMOS Possible?
3.4 Some Thoughts on Printed Carbon Nanotubes and Graphene in the Future of Printed Electronics
3.5 Substrate and Encapsulants for PE V3.0 Applications
3.5.1 The Future of PE Substrates
3.5.2 Some Notes on Encapsulation for PE V3.0
3.6 Eight-Year Forecasts of PE 3.0 Inks
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1-1: The Three Phases of Printed Electronics Development
Exhibit 1-2: Market Segmentation
Exhibit 1-3: Summary of Final Market Value of PE 3.0 Enabled Products with a High PE V3.0 Content
Exhibit 2-1: Printed Components Used in Next-Generation Low-Cost Printed Electronics Applications
Exhibit 2-2: OTFT/OFET Device Performance Trends
Exhibit 2-3: Overview of Prospects for Low-Performance Applications for Organic/Printed Logic and Memory
Exhibit 2-4: Survey of Printed Sensor Research Devices
Exhibit 2-5: Advantages of Printing for Fabricating Large-Area Sensors
Exhibit 2-6: Printed CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-7: Eight-Year Market Forecast of Component-Level Revenues Generated by PE-Enabled Smart Packaging ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-8: Eight-Year Market Forecast of Component-Level Revenues Generated by PE-Enabled Smart Cards ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-9: Eight-Year Market Forecast of Component-Level Revenues Generated by PE-Enabled Medical Devices ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-10: Eight-Year Market Forecast of Component-Level Revenues Generated by Disposable Electronics/Interactive Printed Media ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-11: Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE Revenues Generated by Mobile Devices and Televisions Display Modules ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-12: Eight-Year Market Forecast of Printed OLED Lighting Panels ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-13: Eight-Year Market Forecast of PE Revenues Generated by PV Panels ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-14: Summary of Market Value of PE V3.0 Components by Application  ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-15: Summary of Market Value of PE V3.0 Components and Materials by Type
Exhibit 3-1: Comparison of Common Printing Processes Used In Printed Electronics
Exhibit 3-2: Major Conductors:  Rankings of Main Characteristics
Exhibit 3-3: Summary of Market Value of Selected PE V3.0 Inks by Type  ($ Millions)


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